What next for the North?

What next for the North?
Yusuf Alli
Finally, the curtain was drawn on 2011 general
elections last Thursday with the conclusion of the
governorship poll. Of all strands of the elections, the
presidential poll rekindled the North-South divide but
President Goodluck Jonathan survived with what has been
described as a“Pan-Nigeria” mandate. In this piece, our
Managing Editor, Northern Operation, Yusuf Alli, examines
what is next for the North which agitated for the presidency
with as much sweat and acrimony
What next for the North?
The 2011 general elections have been won and lost but the scars
of the poll will forever linger. But a major fall-out of the poll is
the loss of presidency to the South-South by the North in a
sweeping manner for the first time in 50 years. The incumbent
President Goodluck Jonathan from the Niger Delta won with 57
per cent over a Northern standard-bearer, Gen. Muhammadu
Buhari, who polled 31 per cent of the total votes cast. The
elections reshaped Nigeria’s map to the era of Northern and
Southern protectorates before the amalgamation by a former
Governor-General of Nigeria, Sir. Lord Lugard.
The reality of power shift through the ballot, however,
provoked a spate of protests in the North leaving more than 600
people dead, and, by the National Emergency Management
Agency’s records, over 65,000 Nigerians have been displaced.
Today, the core North has not only lost out at the centre, it is the
butt of attacks and derision over post-election violence. How did
things go awry?
The genesis
The journey into the present political dilemma of the North
could be traced to the sudden ill-health of President Umaru
Yar’Adua on November 23, 2009 and his eventual transfer to a
Saudi hospital. Although Yar’Adua won a national mandate, his
illness ignited political ripples and left the nation divided along
North-South axis on why the then Vice-President Goodluck
Jonathan must be made the acting President. Even the Federal
Executive Council was not spared of the deep-seated crisis when
the Council was‘intimidated’ to declare on December 2, 2009
that Yar’Adua was not incapacitated. The need to invoke
Sections 144 and 145 of the 1999 Constitution polarized the
nation such that were it not for the wisdom of the President of
the Senate, Chief David Mark in invoking the‘Doctrine of
Necessity’, Jonathan would not have become acting President
on February 10, 2010. The ‘Doctrine of Necessity’ was an
emergency contraption to save the nation the trauma of some
Northern cabal in government who held the country by its
jugular.
In as much as the presidential system, which Nigeria adopted
since 1979, is explicit on succession, the fear of the presidency
slipping away from the North created a major worry for the
region. The North had fears in 2010 that Jonathan would not
only be an acting President, he might still contest the 2011
presidential poll.
The silence of key elders in the North during the debate for
acting presidency for Jonathan drew sympathy for Jonathan
from the South culminating in a‘spill over love’ to the April 16,
2011 presidential poll.
The zoning palaver
The sign that Jonathan would contest the 2011 presidential race
began to manifest in April 2010 when some Ijaw leaders held a
secret meeting with the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF).
About 27 prominent Ijaw leaders, led by Dr. Atuboyedia
Obianime, had met with ACF team in Kaduna to open a new
window of rapprochement in the country. Although the leader
of the delegation told newsmen that they decided to reach out
to various power blocs to stabilize the polity, it was regarded as
a smokescreen to test the waters and pass a message to the
North.
By the time Yar’Adua died on May 6, 2010, the stage was set for
an epic battle between the North and the South-South over
zoning. The Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) led by
Mallam Adamu Ciroma (a former Minister of Finance) was in the
vanguard of opposition to the emergence of a Southerner as
President.
The group boasted of heavyweights like ex-President Ibrahim
Babangida, ex-Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, Gen. Aliyu Gusau,
ex-Senate President Iyorchia Ayu, ex-Governor Lawal Kaita,
Alhaji Bello Kirfi, CON(Wazirin Bauchi), Amb. Yahaya Kwande
and Bashir Yusuf Ibrahim.
The Southern leaders under many platforms like the South
South Peoples Assembly and Ijaw Elders Council launched
counter attacks and opted for negotiation with the NPLF leaders.
But all the sessions were deadlocked.
The NPLF leaders, mostly members of the PDP, hinged their
opposition to Jonathan on preamble and Article 7.2(c) of the
party’s constitution which makes provision for rotation of the
presidency between the North and the South for eight years
each.
Although the party ignored the NPLF leaders, they went ahead
to choose a consensus presidential candidate, ex-Vice-President
Atiku Abubakar, against Jonathan at the January 13 presidential
primaries of the party. The consensus candidate was later
defeated by Jonathan.
But before the primaries, the issue of Jonathan’s candidacy
became a subject of litigations at the High Court of Justice of the
Federal Capital Territory. Some NPLF leaders were neck-deep in
the suits. It took a judicial pronouncement by the Chief Judge of
the FCT, Justice Lawal Gumi, before the matter could be laid to
rest.
Why the core North lost out
A post-mortem reveals eight reasons why the North lost out in
the 2011 general elections. Some of these factors are: over-
bearing hostility against Jonathan; apparent ethnic agenda
pursued by the North; the unwritten alliance between Northern
minorities and the South South; the unending crisis in the
region; failure of past Northern leaders who have led the
country; sell-out by Northern governors’ incumbency factor.
The persistent crisis in the North since 1990s has created a gulf
between Hausa-Fulani and minorities in the region. So, the idea
of one North envisioned by the late Sardauna of Sokoto has
been eroded over the years by religious politics. States like
Plateau, Taraba, Benue, minorities in Bauchi, Gombe, Niger and
Adamawa are being alienated from the core principles and
vision of a united North. What these minorities do is to seek
refuge under the guise of alliance in the South. As part of his
winning formulae, Jonathan capitalised on the disunity
cleavage in the region and decided to woo Northern minorities
to back his presidential bid. That was why minority leaders in
the North like Danjuma, David Mark, Solomon Lar, Prof. Jerry
Gana, Governor Jonah Jang, Chief Barnabas and Gemade, were
in the vanguard of his campaign.
The hijack of the party structure by the President through the
clinical removal of a former National Chairman of the PDP,
Prince Vincent Ogbulafor, put paid to whatever hope the North
had in pursuing its zoning agenda. Dr. Okwesilieze Nwodo, who
succeeded Ogbulafor, wasted no time in showing his loyalty
and preference for Jonathan as the presidential candidate of the
party. At the twilight of delivering the ticket to Jonathan, Nwodo
was consumed by his larger-than-life confidence and he had to
be eased out without getting any credit for his efforts. As the
North was agitating for power shift, it was not paying much
attention to the developments within the PDP until the last
minutes.
Blind agitation for the presidency by the North. Since the North
drew the battle line over zoning, it never looked back to
accommodate the South South which has been its traditional
ally since the 50s. Besides the presidency, the Northern leaders
did not give room for other options. Even a week to the election
when some Northern leaders facilitated a working alliance
negotiation between the presidential candidate of the Congress
for Progressive Change, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, and some
leaders of the Action Congress of Nigeria, the North could not
come to the table with concrete concessions. Buhari wanted a
bare-handed negotiation.
Several times, President Goodluck had to reach out to NPLF
leaders to sustain the bond between the two geopolitical zones
but all the talks were deadlocked. At a point, the Ijaw leader,
Chief Edwin Clark wrote an emotional letter to the Convener of
the NPLF, Mallam Adamu Ciroma. Clark pleaded:“Our special
relationship with the North dated far back as 1953 and it has
been very cordial since then. This shows the historical
relationship between the North and the people of the Niger
Delta. And this cordial relationship built on mutual
understanding should not be whisked away by mere political
disagreement over zoning or no zoning.
“Friendship must be built on equality, respect for one another
and mutual understanding and not based on segregation of first
class and second class citizen. Having waited for over 50 years
and the Almighty God has now decided. I hope my letter will
not come to you as a surprise because the Almighty God had
made it possible for you and I and the rest of Nigerians to live
together in peace in a united and indivisible country called
Nigeria .”
Sell-out by Northern governors. The desire for second term
ticket made most Northern governors to sell out. To these
governors, the legacy of one North is not as important as the
power they are seeking. And the lucre of automatic second term
ticket was a gem they could not ignore. But in a recent
interview with The Nation, Governor Murtala Nyako denied the
allegation of a sell-out. Nyako said: “It (the support for Jonathan
by Northern governors) is in the interest of the nation. I think in
the long term, we will realize that this is in order because our
relationship with the rest of the country is extremely important.
What is good for Nigeria is good for the North and the South.
“We cannot simply have a situation where we are taking
divergent views from the general opinion of the South. I think
in the last few months, everybody has realized that there is
need for us to come together as a nation and live above
sentiments.”
The Governor of Niger State, Dr. Babangida Aliyu, gave a
summary of the trouble with the North and why it lost out. He
said:“We need to take a cue from the broadminded approach to
issues, the political sagacity and ability to negotiate, the
sophisticated reasoning, the comportment and commitment of
our fallen heroes who were selfless and lived above board in all
ramifications.
“Do we still have ‘the North’ that reflects ‘a trans-ethnic
community’ and ‘the Northerner’ as a citizen that transcends
tribal, religious and class affiliations? Where do we stand today
in the political equation of this community? Are we still with the
ball; or where did we lose it; and are we still in the game? Are
we prepared and ready to compete with other regions?
What next for the North?
The first challenge for the core North is to be part of the healing
process of President Goodluck Jonathan by reuniting with the
rest part of the country to pursue common goals of a united and
one nation. The events since April 16 presidential election have
created deeper suspicion for the core North by both the South
and the minorities in the North and if care is not taken, a new
political alliance/conspiracy may emerge between Southerners
and Northern minorities to keep Hausa-Fulani out of power for a
while. Although the North is looking forward to power shift in
2015, the new power bloc (the South and Northern minorities)
may still play the number game and whip up equal opportunity
sentiments to concede the presidency to either the South-East
or a Northern minority.
Ex-Vice-President Atiku Abubakar has already subscribed to this
post-election healing process when on Friday he said:“In view
of the unfortunate and misguided post-election violence that
greeted the election in certain parts of the country, President
Jonathan should begin an urgent healing process in the entire
country and also within his own Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
family.”
The need to replace old brigade politicians by young Northern
Turks. The remnants of the old brigade politicians in the North
appear to be the albatross of this politically sophisticated
region. While acting under the pretext of preserving the
legacies of the late Premier of the North, Sir Ahmadu Bello,
these old and tired hands still live in the past which was
dominated by ethnic and religious sentiments. Unfortunately,
they still commanded mass loyalty, during the elections, from
the army of unemployed youths and hangers-on in the North.
Despite the fact that the North voted against violence during the
governorship poll, a new generation of cosmopolitan politicians
ought to emerge not only to protect the interest of the North
but to build bridges across the Niger. In their heyday, the likes
of a former Head of State, Gen. Yakubu Gowon, Mallam Adamu
Ciroma, ex-President Ibrahim Babangida, ex-Vice-President
Atiku Abubakar, Gen. Theophillus Danjuma, Gen. Aliyu Gusau,
ex-IGP, Mohammed Dikko Yusuf and ex-Minister Nasir el-Rufai,
had championed this culture of bridge-building nationwide
until ethnic emotion overwhelmed them during the countdown
to the just-concluded general elections.
But a few Northern leaders can still cast the first stone and effect
generational change in the leadership of the region. These are
leaders like ex-Head of State, Gen. Abdul Salami Abubakar, Vice-
president Namadi Sambo, business mogul, Aliko Dangote; a
former National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party, Chief
Audu Ogbeh; ex-presidential candidate, Ibrahim Shekarau ,ex-
EFCC chairman, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, the President of the Senate,
Chief David Mark, ex-Chairman of the Arewa Consultative Forum,
Gen. I.B.M. Haruna, Col. Abubakar Dangiwa Umar(rtd), Governors
Bukola Saraki, Sule Lamido and Danjuma Goje, and ex-Governor
Ahmed Makarfi among others.
In fact, of all the leaders, Abdul Salami distinguished himself as
a courageous leader. Not minding a backlash from the North,
Gen. Abdul Salami said:“The recent post election violence that
erupted in some Northern states in the country is most idiotic
and uncalled for. I don’t know what people want to gain from
killing others when they have a better way to fight their cause
by going to court if they feel aggrieved.”
A social scientist, Dr. Abdullahi Mamman, said: “The North needs
a new face to project its image as a hospitable and
accommodating region. The old forces need to give way to a
new set of leaders that can assert the place of the North in this
millennium.”
Addressing the perpetual culture of violence in the North. Since
the advent of democracy in 1999, the North has lost much to
violence than it has reaped its dividends. According to a
Brussels-based International Crisis Group, over 14,000 people
died in ethnic and religious clashes in Nigeria between 1999
and 2009.
And the latest post-election violence has confirmed that the
North is a tinder-box because of over 10 million kids on the
streets (Almajiris). These street kids are always at the beck and
call of desperate politicians and religious bigots. This explains
why some politicians took advantage of the Almajiris to
perpetrate post-election violence. Worried by the development
and following a proposal from the Universal Basic Education
Commission, the Federal Government in 2009 sent an 11-man
team, including Christians, to Indonesia to understudy
Indonesian Madrasa (combined Islamic and Western school
method) system to give a comprehensive education to these
Almajiris. But most state governments in the North have only
paid lip service to the plight of these Almajiris who go by
different names in Kano, Bauchi, Borno, Kaduna, Jigawa, to
perpetrate violence.
In an interview with a national daily on violence in the North,
Rev. Fr. Mathew Hassan Kukah said:“I think leaders in Northern
Nigeria must ask themselves why their area has become
combustible. A lot of these characters who are causing this
problem in the North have no basic education.
“We have a reservoir of almost 12 to 15 million young people in
northern Nigeria who are members of the Almajiri and who
have nothing to do. This is why when people talk about trying
those who are responsible for all these burnings and so on...
have you ever found somebody who is working in a bank going
to burn a church or going to burn a mosque? Have you found
anybody who has a job and is educated going to burn a church
or mosque?
“Let me tell you, these are street urchins who don’t know what
life is and who don’t have value for their lives. Those people,
unfortunately, exist only in northern Nigeria. So, the question
the North must ask itself is how is it that it has managed to end
up with this kind of nonsense. The population of the Almajiri in
northern Nigeria is more than the population of many African
countries. In an environment where there are no industries,
nothing is happening, except that this country is producing
Almajiri and an endless number of stealing elites, who don’t
even know how to steal and apply the proceeds of their theft to
some meaningful development.”
Mass enlightenment. The post-election violence underscored the
imperative for mass enlightenment in the North. Most of those
involved did not appreciate the beauty of democracy which
borders on winning, losing and going to court to seek redress
where any result is disputed. The killings of corps members,
who were impartial electoral officers, amounted to a mere
transfer of aggression.
Early jostle for 2015?
Going back to the drawing board. All hope is not lost for the
North as its leaders need to go back to the drawing board to
plan early enough for 2015 in terms of rapprochement with
other geopolitical zones, shopping for the right and qualitative
presidential candidate and the right platform, being cohesive,
and taking advantage of its numerical strength. The North is
blessed with an array of self-less and sound leaders but it needs
to work hard and rise above partisanship to give these young
elements a chance to prove their mettle.
The NPLF, which has refused to condemn the violence in the
North till date, might still serve as a tool for holding Jonathan
administration accountable on his pledges to transform the
country within four years.
With a pledge of one term in office and unwritten commitment
to some Northern leaders/Emirs by Jonathan to ensure power
shift to the North in 2015, the region can bounce back in four
years. But it has to reassure Nigerians of its commitment to the
unity and indivisibility of the nation.
The only caveat is that with a good homework, the North may
reclaim its mandate in 2015 and use advantage of its numerical
strength never to allow power shift to other parts again. The
leaders of other zones are also watching the political pendulum
swinging in the North.